The Demographic Transition Model

Defines and assesses the usefulness of the demographic transition as an analytical tool.

The demographic transition model represents an attempt to develop a coherent synthesis of world population history over the course of recent centuries. As this paper will demonstrate, this conceptual model suffers from the drawback of all generalizations in that it fails to explain a variety of local or individual demographic divergences from the expected norm. However, while this failing is acceptable in that it is common to all generalizations and thus may be compensated for, a discussion of its relevance to the understanding modern population will demonstrate that there are so many exceptions to its conceptual rule that it becomes useless as an analytical tool in any respect.

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